Jumat, 21 September 2012

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Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, United States, and the World, by Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne

Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, United States, and the World, by Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne



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Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, United States, and the World, by Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne

When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, and CEOs listen.

Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House; British prime ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair have recognized his wisdom; and business leaders from Rupert Murdoch to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, have praised his accomplishments.

This book gathers key insights from interviews, speeches, and Lee's voluminous published writings and presents them in an engaging question and answer format. Lee offers his assessment of China's future, asserting, among other things, that "China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S." He affirms the United States' position as the world's sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India'sfuture, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy.

Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This audiobook belongs on the reading list of every world leader - including the one who took the oath of office on January 20, 2013.

  • Sales Rank: #9295 in Audible
  • Published on: 2013-11-12
  • Released on: 2013-11-12
  • Format: Unabridged
  • Original language: English
  • Running time: 281 minutes

Most helpful customer reviews

113 of 127 people found the following review helpful.
An Incredible Man with Excellent Insights
By Loyd Eskildson
Singapore has an airport like a movie set and home ownership for 95% of citizens, science and math scores higher than Japan's. Singapore's per capita GNP is now higher than that of its colonizer, Great Britain. It has the world's busiest port, is the third-largest oil refiner, the lowest cost of health care of any developed nation, and has become a major center of global manufacturing and service. In 1965 it ranked economically with Chile, Argentina and Mexico, now its per capita GNP is 4- 5X theirs, exceeding that in America. Lee was prime minister from independence in 1959 until 1990, when he allowed his hand-picked successor and now his eldest son to succeed; he's still 'Senior Minister' with enormous influence. Nixon speculated that, had Lee lived in another time and another place, he might have 'attained the world stature of a Churchill, a Disraeli, or a Gladstone.'

On America, Lee likes the free and open argument about what is good or bad for society, and none of the secrecy and terror that's part of communist government. He also sees the focus on individual freedom as creating its leadership in innovation. Other parts are totally unacceptable - guns, drugs, violent crime, vagrancy, unbecoming behavior in public, symptoms of the breakdown of civil society. Freedom to have maximum enjoyment of one's freedoms can only exist in an ordered state - not contention and anarchy.

America has a vicious drug problem. To solve it, it goes around the world helping other anti-narcotic agencies try and stop the suppliers. And when provoked, its captures the president of Panama and puts him on trial. In Singapore, any policeman who sees someone behaving suspiciously leading him to suspect the person is under the influence of drugs can require that person to have his urine tested. If it contains drugs, the man immediately goes for treatment. Unmentioned by Lee is the added fact that Singapore executes drug dealers. (Singapore also has one of the lowest crime rates in the world - chewing gum is banned because of the messes created.)

If we did not have the good points of the West to guide us, we wouldn't have gotten out of our backwardness. But we don't want all of the West. Lee also says he admired America more 25 years ago. Liberal, intellectual thinking after WWII supported everyone being allowed to do their own thing. There is such a thing as evil, and it is not the result of being a victim of society. Westerners have abandoned an ethical basis for society, believing that all problems are solvable by a good government - we in the East never believed that. He's concerned about the focus on individual rights, not paired with individual responsibility, in America, that sociologists have convinced Americans that failure isn't their fault but that of the economic system, that charity has become an entitlement without any stigma, and the growth of entitle costs creating huge debts for future generations.

In the East, the government does not try to provide for a person what the family best provides. In the West, government has become seen as able to fulfill those obligations - eg. provide the support to make up for the absent father. A Chinese aphorism is appropriate - 'Look after yourself, cultivate yourself, do everything to make yourself useful, look after your country.' We start with self-reliance, in the West today it is the opposite.

Conversely, Lee is more confident in the government's ability to promote economic growth and technological advancement. It starts with a good education, buttressed by strong values of self-responsibility.

America makes the hopeful assumption that all men are equal, that people all over the world are the same. They are not. Genetics and history interact, and they are different, especially in their neurological development and cultural values. Americans gloss over these issues because it is politically incorrect to study them. This leads to social policies embarked upon with great enthusiasm but with meager results. (Lee also adds that he started off believing all men were equal, but now knows that's the most unlikely thing ever to have been.) The Bell curve is a fact of life - blacks on average score 85% on IQ and has nothing to do with culture, whites score on average 100, Asians score higher, by at least 10 points.

Chinese leaders are serious about displacing the U.S. as the #1 power in Asia and want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S. China sees overall GDP, not GDP/capita, as what matters in international standing. It does not want to be an honorary member of the West. Other nations, especially neighbors, know there will be consequences if they thwart China's core interests. The mistake of Germany and Japan was their effort to challenge the existing order - the Chinese have avoided this mistake. They've calculated they need maybe 50 years of peace and quiet to catch up. The Russian mistake was that they put so much into military expenditure, so their economy collapsed. Lee's worry is that existing generation has been through the anti-Japanese war, the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, the Gang of Four and know the pitfalls. However, they are inculcating enormous pride and patriotism in the young, and it is volatile.

The government of China will change, but it will not end up like Western systems. Cheap and available technology and migration to the cities require that China remain pragmatic, keep tight security control, while easing up and give more local authority. The biggest single fear China's leaders have is the corrosive effect of graft. If China became a liberal democracy it would collapse. To ask China to become a democracy, when in its 5,000 years of recorded history it never counted heads; if you disagreed you chop off heads, not count heads. Lee does predict comprehensive legal codes by 2035, with a stable legal system.

China will find it difficult recruiting outside talent unless it makes English the dominant language, as Singapore has. Chinese is a very difficult language to learn - one can learn conversational Chinese after a few years, but it is very difficult to be able to read quickly. (Lee speaks both English and Mandarin.)

Brazil has put aside an area as big as Massachusetts to grow soybeans for China.

The Chinese are very conscious of being encircled by allies of the U.S. But they are also good at countering those moves - South Korea has the largest number of foreign students in China, and they see their future in China. The only Asian country that's openly on America's side is Japan - the others are either neutral or pro-China.

North Korea's leaders believe their survival depends upon having at least one nuclear bomb - otherwise they will collapse and the leaders will be put on trial. The Chinese could stop them by denying food and fuel so they would implode. But that would bring the South into the North, and the Americans to the Yalu River. So the North Koreans know this won't happen.

Lee does not believe democracy necessarily leads to development. In multiracial societies, people don't vote in accordance with their economic and social interests, rather in accordance with race and religion. Lee's solution has been to turn Singapore into a one-party state, while running a meritocracy. The exuberance of democracy leads to undisciplined and disorderly conditions inimical to development; further, diverse opinions and competing ideas doesn't guarantee you will succeed. He does not believe that Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, or Singapore could have succeeded if they had to work under an American-type constitution where gridlock exists on every major issue.

The U.S. has not functioned for the U.S. since the Vietnam War and the great Society. Those who prevail in American elections are not necessarily those most capable in governing, but those who can present themselves and ideas 'in a polished way. To beat your opponent in the next election, you have to promise to give more away.'

He also criticizes U.S. immigration practices, declaring 'multiculturalism will destroy America.' The key question, per Lee, is will 'you make Hispanics Anglo-Saxons in culture or will they make you more Latin American?'

Singapore is still one-man, one-vote, but Lee believes it would be better if every man over the age of 40 with a family had two votes because he's likely to be more careful. At 60 they should go back to one vote. Nonetheless, Lee also says polling shows a weakness of mind - if you can't force or are unwilling to force your people to follow, you are not a leader.

On the topic of change, Lee advises 'make haste slowly.' Nobody likes to lose his ethnic, cultural, religious, or linguistic identity. On the other hand, you cannot have many distinct components and be one nation. If you want complete separateness you should not come to live in the host country. There are some circumstances best left alone - eg. Muslims are extremely sensitive about their customs, especially diet; in such matters one has to find a middle path.
The people and governments of East Asia have learned that the more they engage in wars and conflict, the poorer and more desperate they become.

'We were progressing very nicely until the surge of Islam came, and if you asked me for my observations, the other communities have easier integration - friends, inter-marriages and so on - than Muslims... I would say, today, we can integrate all religions and races, except Islam.' He sees Confucianism, Hinduism, Shintoism as secular and knowing that to progress you must master science and technology; Muslims, however, believe that if they master the Koran and do all it prescribes, they will succeed.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the cause of Islamic terrorism, rather a sense (especially in the Middle East) that the West has put them down for too long. Because globalization is largely U.S.-led and driven, militant Islam identifies America as the threat. America's support of Israel aggravates their sense of threat, but terrorism would continue even if the Middle East problem was solved.

China is a vast, disparate country - there is no alternative to strong central power. It will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S.

As for Japan, allowing it to send forces abroad is like giving liquor to an alcoholic - whatever they do they carry to the nth degree, and they know this. Lee blames Saudi Arabia for encouraging Islamist extremism by financing mosques and religious schools worldwide that spread an austere version of Wahhabist Islam.'

Lee's heroes include Winston Churchill and Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader who turned China around beginning in 1979, despite holding a weak hand at the start.

68 of 79 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting man, but the format of this book limits its usefulness
By Mark Kline
I am a student with a casual interest in emerging international markets such as those of China, India and Singapore. I purchased this book hoping to learn something useful pertaining to that area. This book is a compilation of Lee Kuan Yew's (henceforth LKY) thoughts pertaining to 9 topics: the future of China, the United States, US-China relations, India, Islamic Extremism, National Economic Growth, Geopolitics and Globalization, and Democracy.The final topic is "How Lee Kuan Yew Thinks."

This book's strengths are numerous. LKY is a personally interesting man with a lot of valuable experience leading Singapore. He has an unusual perspective, as Singapore's Prime Minister for 31 years. The topics chosen are generally of broad interest, such as the future of India, China, the US, etc. He also has a different perspective on the usefulness of democracy, which as an American reader I found interesting.

That being said, when this book misses, it really misses. For example, take this statement about the future of the US: "Multiculturalism will destroy America. There is a danger that large numbers of Mexicans and others from South and Central America will continue to come to the U.S. and spread their culture across the whole of the country. If they breed faster than the WASPs [white Anglo-Saxon Protestants] and are living with them, whose culture will prevail?" This view, that large numbers of lazy immigrants are going to change American culture to one of dependency, is one that LKY returns to several times, and I do not find it to be credible. However, because this book is just a compilation of quotes, it is of course impossible for him to defend his assertions. There is nothing for the reader to do except keep going.

In addition, the quotes in this book vary widely in time frame. While the book flows as well as can be expected for a book of quotes, having 30-year-old insights next to comments made one month ago made me uncomfortable. Let us take an assertion like "[Radical Islam is a] new situation, never faced before in the history of civilization." The reader must determine from the footnotes whether that statement was made in 1970, or on September 12 2001, or in 2012 after more than a decade of US presence in Afghanistan. There is no context, only quote after quote.

In short, this book states the opinions of an interesting man, but the format leaves no room for evidence-based argument and that severely limits the book's usefulness. I find it difficult to recommend very highly.

14 of 17 people found the following review helpful.
no new material, summary of past interviews
By Spike Spiegel
if you expect to read a "new" book with new ideas from Lee, you will be greatly disappointed. this is a summary of past interviews with media Lee did prior to 2011. skip this book if you are already familiar with the man and follow him on current affairs. nonetheless, this is a fantastic snapshot of Lee's ideas on statecraft and international diplomacy.

i always enjoy Lee's analysis and his accomplishment for Singapore but he got it wrong on the following, some are ideological, some are factual...

1. Lee proposed Chinese (in China) should all speak/write English because English is a language of technology, innovation, industry and commerce. problem with this argument is, the Chinese language embodies the history, culture and innovation of the Chinese civilization, it binds the diverse ethnic groups located in distant regions as a "people". important to note China is not a small country like Singapore. even Lee admitted that the 1.5 billion people of China is a powerful economic tool that China could shut off market access to unfriendly countries and change behavior without applying military measure. Japan, a country Lee admires, never gave up japanese for English. Japan achieved #3 economy in the world without going english for every japanese.

2. Lee believes US will always be #1 but offered few reasons beyond "innovation", "immigrants" and "agility to change". Then he immediately talked about the unsustainable debts, fiscal irresponsibility, racial/ethnic divides and politicians making policy for short term gratification detrimental to long term national interest. Lee also disregarded America's imperial hegemony which depletes resources needed for primary/secondary education, care for the aged and infrastructure. (Lee made no comment on US' decaying infrastructure which is stunning given Singapore's superior infrastructure). understandably, Lee was being diplomatic with american media in these interviews, however, the total neglect on these "elephants" is glaring.

3. Lee wants US strong military presence in the pacific to repel China but also believes countries in the region should "get along" with China as China will definitely become a superpower. so Lee loves US World Police AND also loves China $$$. these are mutually exclusive propositions. Lee should know his chinese, "one mountain does not contain two tigers" metaphor. if you want China $$$, you can't have US military in China's own hemisphere. would US be happy to have Russian Navy carrier fleets (China has no carrier fleet) patrolling up and down California coast on the west and New York on the east?

4. Lee got it wrong on Russia. he repeatedly stated Russia has a depleting population and Chinese are taking over Russia's far eastern frontier. as such, Russia is heading to perpetual decline. this is another myth propagated by US govt and media that Russia is the "bad" guy, this is both absurd and not true. according to World Bank, Russia's 13 per 100 birthrate is only 1 lower than US (14 per 100) but higher than Canada, Spain (both 11/100), and much higher than Germany's 8 per 100. Russian people is no more "dying out" than germans, japanese, korean, italian, all have much lower birthrate than russian. Lee also remarked that Russians are dying out due to "alcoholism". statistics from WHO shows Russian's per capita alcoholic consumption is 16 liters per year, only 1 liter higher than south korea, 2 liters higher than UK. i believe Lee has read too much anglo/american propaganda on Russia and failed to fact check. Lee should read up on reputable Russian Scholars like Stephen Cohen (of NYU) and get himself educated on Russia before making these inaccurate, if not xenophobic remarks. Russia is a big power to contend with. With a growing population, historically extremely smart (think all the Russian musical, scientific, literature achievement), immense wealth in oil/gas and great leader in Putin (who may be the next Deng), Russia is thriving instead of declining.

5. Lee believes Chinese lacks innovation, imagination which will be the Achilles heel of china's long term viability. this is another myth propagated by the anglo/american pact. if Lee studied 2000+ yrs of chinese history, chinese people was way ahead of the europeans for over 1,600 yrs until 1800s. the "innovative genius" of the europeans is a 200 yrs phenomenon. to be fair, one needs an infrastructure to innovate. if a country is bombed, colonized and annihilated by countries of "gun culture" (recall Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs and Steel"), there would be no room for innovation. Also remember, for most of Chinese history, it has been a peaceful culture. Unlike Europeans who have been engaged in perpetual wars even within themselves.

Although I think Lee got his history wrong,i still think he is a great man. love the man

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